Wednesday 1 June 2011

Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters

These two are freaking good
The Atlanta Braves are one of my least favourite teams in MLB. Most of that dislike comes from Chipper Jones, who I hate with a passion. However, there are some members of the Braves that I really love. For example, I really love Kimbrel and Venters, and I'm not saying this just because they're both on my fantasy team. The pair have been two of the most dominating relievers in the major leagues this season, and they are doing it in two very distinct styles. Let's look into a bit more, shall we?




I'm going to start with Kimbrel, just because he, being a closer, probably has a bit more publicity at this point than Venters, a non-closer.

Craig Michael Kimbrel, born in May of 1988 (!!!) in Huntsville, Alabama, is a right-handed pitcher currently serving as the closer for the Atlanta Braves. He was drafted twice by the Braves, in the 33rd round in 2007, and in the 3rd round 2008 draft. Kimbrel throws a mid-90s fastball with good horizontal movement, but his killer offering is his mid-80s slider with excellent horizontal and vertical movement. He hasn't had a history of arm troubles, IIRC, but I could be wrong.

Drafted as a relief pitcher, it didn't take long for Kimbrel to reach the majors, and for good reason as well. He completely demolished minor league hitters. His minor league stats are quite videogame-esque. An ERA of 1.85, 151.0 IP, 95 BB (!), 242 K (!!!!!!!!!!). Through his minor league career, he struck out 14.4/9 while walking 5.7/9. That, my friends, is unreal.

And the craziest part is, he's doing the same to major league hitters. Including the 20.2 innings he pitched in 2010, Kimbrel is striking out 15.1/9 while walking 5.48/9. His career ERA/FIP/xFIP slashline is 1.81/1.74/2.34. For a 23 year-old, that's ridiculous.

Kimbrel stats for 2011, while he has 16 saves, doesn't look quite as good as 2010 at first glance, especially the 3.00 ERA, but his BABIP is quite bloated at .345, and he's been displaying much better control this year, with a 4.33 BB/9, compared to last year's 6.97 BB/9. His FIP is worse this year than last due to the one home run he has given up this year, but his xFIP has actualy improved, mostly due to the very impressive 51.7 GB%.

Overall, Kimbrel is quickly becoming a top notch closer. If he can maintain the strikeout rate and the groundball rates, and improve just a bit more on the free passes, he has a legitimate chance to become the best closer in baseball.

But wait, what about Venters? Venters is the one I actually wanted to talk about. His year so far has been so crazy, that it would be a sin not to at least write a post on it. But first, biography time!

Jonathan William Venters, born March 20, 1985, in Pikeville, Kentucky, is a left-handed pitcher for the Atlanta Braves. He was drafted by the Braves in the 30th round of the 2003 draft. He throws a hard sinking fastball in the mid-to-high-90s and the occasional mid-80s slider with good movement.

Originally drafted as a starter, Venters posted mediocre numbers in 2004 and 2005 and lost all of 2006 recovering from Tommy John Surgery. After toiling away in the minors from 2007~2009 to more mediocre results, Venters was called up to be part of the Braves' bullpen in early 2010. Since then, he has been a completely different pitcher.

Its common logic that a starter will produce better results if used as a reliever. In 2010, Venter took this idea to a whole new level.

In his entire minor league career, Venters posted a 4.11 ERA in 422.2 innings with 6.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and 0.4 HR/9. In 2010 in the majors, Venters posted a 1.95 ERA in 83 innings with 10.08 K/9, 4.23 BB/9, 0.11 HR/9, and, in my opinion, the most impressive stat of his 2010 season, a 68.4 GB%, the best in baseball. And his .287 BABIP and 73.2 LOB% show that it wasn't all luck. He had the benefit of flyballs staying in the park, with a 2.9% HR/FB, but his 2.69 FIP and 3.04 xFIP were still respectably good.

And in the 2011 season, Venters has risen to God-level.

Through 33.2 innings, Venters has an ERA of 0.53, 8.02 K/9, and 2.94 BB/9. And if you have paid any attention to Venters' 2011 stats at all, you probably know what's coming, but if you haven't, this might blow your mind. It blew my mind, that's for sure.

Venters has a 82.9 GB%, a .185 BABIP, a 92.9 LOB%, and 0.0% HR/FB. Opposing batters have hit .140/.233/.168 against him so far.

Just let that sink in for a moment.

Now, there is no doubt at all that he is getting extremely lucky. His FIP/xFIP so far in 2011 is 2.31/2.55; very good, but nowhere near what he is doing right now.

Isn't that interesting? Because this is what I follow baseball for, to be amazed and constantly mind blown by the ridiculousness and unpredictablilty of performance.


Kimbrel will probably continue to dominate, or even get better. On the other hand, the luck gods probably can't protect Venters from gravity any longer.

No comments:

Post a Comment