Corey Patterson



Do not hit this guy lead-off


So, I was going to write a post on Jo-Jo Reyes breaking his non-winning streak, but its been covered a bazillion times already, so now I'm going to write about the second most valuable position player on the Toronto Blue Jays, Corey Patterson.

Most baseball fans have probably heard of the story of Corey "Bust" Patterson. Corey Patterson, the left fielder for the 2011 Toronto Blue Jays, was the Chicago Cub's third overall draft pick in the 1998 draft. Despite posting mediocre numbers in the higher levels, Patterson was rushed quickly through the minors, and, by spring of 2002, he was the regular centre fielder for the Chicago Cubs.

Since being called up, Patterson has only had one season (2003) where he batted significantly better than average, and even that season was shut down early due to injuries. His career batting line is as follows: .255/.294/.407. Other than above average power for a centre fielder, he has been a significantly below average hitter for the majority of his career.

If i had to pick one word to describe Patterson's career, it would be "wasted". He has above average power, speed, and can play a good centre field. He has all the tools to be a star, but the lack of polish in plate discipline, and his failures against left handed pitching, has turned him into a fourth outfielder. Because of that, he is referred to as one of the biggests busts in the Major League draft history.

And now, he's the second most valuable hitter on a team that's a game above .500. What the hell's going on?


Patterson's batting line in 2011 so far is .294/.325/.467, with an OPS+ of 117, a wOBA of .341, and a wRC+ of 115. Basically, he's been above average so far. And these numbers share similarities with his career numbers: a low On-Base Percentage and a high Slugging.

Now, I've written a lot here already, but I'm going to get to my main point.

I've had a discussion, or more like an argument, with a friend today about Corey Patterson that also involved the topic of line-up protection. He was arguing that Patterson is playing better now because a) he's a good hitter and b) he has baseball's best hitter hitting behind him, so he sees more hittable pitches. And I called that a load of bull.

My reasoning was that there has been plenty of research done to prove that lineup protection is a myth, and that, while a good hitter may be more prone to walking in a weak line-up, a weak hitter does not benefit from hitting before/after a good hitter. (If you want to look into this, there's plenty of stuff on Baseball Prospectus or The Hardball Times) (I think I'll have a post up about line-up protection later)

So then, he asked me to explain how Patterson has been hitting so well this year, and I decided to look into that. So, after doing some research, this is what I came up with.

Batted balls profile and BABIP

- Patterson's career batted ball profile: LD: 18.9%  GB: 43.5%  FB: 37.6%  HR/FB: 10.4%
- Patterson's 2011 batted ball profile:   LD: 16.1%  GB: 43.8%  FB: 40.1%  HR/FB: 7.3%

This is strange. Patterson has hit less line drives, more groundballs, more flyballs, and less flyballs leaving the park this year compared to his career, yet his batting line now is better than the one for his career. So now we turn to BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play.

- career BABIP: .300     - 2011 BABIP: .343

This is probably the main factor in the better hitting line. Now, a BABIP difference of .043 is a bit significant, but not outrageous. Its possible that Patterson can keep a BABIP of .343 for the rest of the season. The problem is the BABIP in context to his batted ball profile.

Its a little too late at night, and I'm feeling a bit too tired, so I'm not actually going to calculate xBABIP, but simply put, Patterson's 2011 batted ball profile should lead to a lower BABIP than that of his career. So even more simply put, Patterson's 2011 BABIP is very unsustainable and, unless he starts hitting more line drives/groundballs instead of flyballs (he also has a bloated infield flyball rate), it should come crashing down, and so should his batting line.


Damn, I was going to do some pitch types and plate discipline research, but I'm too tired, so I'll end it here for now. My conclusion, for now, is that, contrary to the crap that comes out of Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler's mouthes, Patterson is not benefiting from hitting in front of Jose Bautista. Instead, he is getting very lucky on balls put into play. His results until now seem very unsustainable, and, unless a significant change occurs in his mechanics/approach, his hitting prowess should come crashing down soon enough.

Oh wow. That was long. I hope someone reads this.